Source: sky bet games online Reference News
A few days ago，Tsinghua University China and the World Economic Forum, with the theme of "getting out of the haze", held in Beijing。Li Daokui, Director of the China and World Economic Research Center of Tsinghua University, said on the forum，Although the Chinese sky bet games online is facing international in 2016、Various challenges in China，But China's sky bet games online has the confidence、There is a way、There are highlights，As long as various reform measures can be in place and landed，In the second half of 2016，As soon as the late 2017, the Chinese economic decline cycle will bottom out。
China's sky bet games online is in the confusion of "haze"
Li Daokui said，The "smog" here refers to confidence、"Haze" on the point of view，Some may be a variety of "haze" brought from fluctuations in the financial market。From the perspective of China's economic operation，We are indeed in the confusion of various "haze"。sky bet games online confusion，There are all kinds of voices from the international singing and decline，There are also confusion from different expectations from the domestic financial market。From an international perspective，China's economic trend has caused a lot of attention，There is a very strong singing wind of singing。Mr. Soros last time，Especially when the Davos Forum was held，A series of arguments that have made a very clear view on the Chinese economy，His basic point is that the Chinese economy will land hard，China's economy may become a new Sky Bet round、The source of the global financial crisis that is more violent than 2008，That is to say, the Chinese economy will trigger a new round of international financial crisis，and the degree of harm、The degree of intensity exceeds 2008。
"Haze" also comes from fluctuations in the domestic financial market。January sky bet games online year，The Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 20%，January，The global average stock index declines above 10%，is the largest in history。There is also a wind of singing from the financial market。Shareholders have given great hope to changes in the leadership of the CSRC，A 2%rise appeared on Monday，But more than 6%of the decline appeared on Thursday，sky bet games online also indicates that China's financial market is very concerned about the current overall economy。
sky bet games online coming out of the "haze" confidence and method
For sky bet games online ，Li Daokui said，2016 is a very critical structural adjustment starting year。The current operation of the Chinese economy，It can be summarized as "Three": The first is to have the confidence，The second is that there is a way，The third is a highlight。
"Why is there a confidence? Because the Chinese economy has passed the rapid development of nearly 40 years，To sky bet games online day, it is still an economy with a huge growth potential。The current level of per capita development of the Chinese economy is viewed globally，Most of the midstream，The level of per capita development is compared with developed countries，Only one -fifth of others。The Chinese economy today has encountered various difficulties，But the three most basic growth factors，Still with us。"Li Daokui emphasized。
The first is stable、Government that supports the development of the market economy，sky bet games online is essential; second，Sky Bet Continuously growing human capital，sky bet games online includes the continuous improvement of the education level of labor force，also includes the improvement of labor health level; third，China's economy is continuously open to the outside world。"There is a basic truth in economics research，Who do you conduct international trade and investment with who you do with，Who will you be like，Do you engage in international trade with developed countries，Fuck foreign investment or investment，Just watch with him。China today is undoubtedly the world's largest open body，From international trade to investment，Not only attracts a large number of foreign direct investment，The momentum of foreign investment is also very fierce，These two investments are basically synchronized。Forcing the Chinese economy through international trade and investment must be transformed and upgraded，Forcing our business to learn new concepts。"The experience of world economic growth over the past 70 years tells us，As long as these three things are done right，A economy will continue to rise，Modernization will definitely be able to achieve。
Li Daokui further pointed out，Although the Chinese sky bet games online encountered various problems，But there is still a way to solve it。
The central government proposed that five things to do in 2016，For example, de -inventory。Real estate inventory should be reduced，sky bet games online year should be able to achieve certain progress。Why? Because the situation of real estate is diversified，The inventory of the first and second -tier cities is not serious at all，On the contrary, investment must be strengthened in the short term。For example，Shanghai has only three months of inventory，Beijing is nine months，So first Sky Bet app -tier cities，There are also some second -tier cities，In the middle of sky bet games online year, there will be a wave of real estate investment development，Only in sky bet games online way can the house prices in the first -tier and some second -tier cities be stabilized，Otherwise, it will be an economic and social problem。So real estate destocking will make certain progress sky bet games online year。
Severe inventory in third- and fourth -tier cities，How to go for inventory? In terms of direction，Must be accelerated，Think of ways to make it in rural areas、The population who has not yet entered the city to settle in the town，and solve their children's education、Medical Questions。sky bet games online is not only supply -side reform，It is also a demand -side reform。Rural residents can settle in the city，Internal demand will increase，Employment labor supply will also increase，Also supply -side reform。The supply -side structural reform proposed by China is completely different from the supply of supplies proposed by Mrs. Sachel, Britain and President of the United States in the 1980s，Supply school only emphasized two things at the time，One is tax reduction，One is relaxation control，The supply -side structural reform we are going to carry out today，Not only tax reduction and relaxation control，There are also a large number of important tasks of deepening reform，Once these reforms are in place，Not only can improve efficiency on the supply side，The demand side must also go up。
Followed by deleveraging。China's macro leverage ratio is not prominent in major global economies，Not the highest，debt accounts for GDP. The proportion of GDP is 250%，Basically consistent with the United States，and Japan up to 400%or more，There are many countries that exceed Sky Bet our level。sky bet games online should be said that China's economic leverage ratio is not high，Because Chinese national savings rate is very high，The official statistics are 50%，The number we calculates ourselves is 38%，Even at 38%of the national savings rate，sky bet games online is also more than double the US national savings rate。Countries with high savings rate，Leverage rate appropriately increases a little bit，Not only does not violate the law，and sky bet games online is still a manifestation of improving efficiency。The key to the problem now is to adjust leverage，The debt of the central government needs to increase a little，No huge、Bond market with very strong liquidity，Many financial operations are difficult to run。
A reducing cost again。Mainly two things，One is that the cost of financing must be reduced，Many companies now borrow money through extremely high interest rates，It has great difficulty in their operations; the second is to reduce taxes related to labor employment。Now sky bet games online part is very high。Generally speaking，Hire a worker if you spend one dollar，You need to spend 4-5 dime on related costs such as five insurances and one gold，sky bet games online is the point of force to reduce costs。
There are also supplementary shortcomings。The key is poverty alleviation，It should be able to make great progress sky bet games online year，Generally speaking, 70 million poor people，If you want to poverty alleviation，It can solve the problem less than 10 billion，The key is to have a mechanism。In short,，Make a shortcoming will make major progress sky bet games online year
Finally, the production capacity。I hope it will be within the next five years，Reduce the backward production capacity of about 10%of the steel and coal industries。"Spend a 10%reduction in production capacity，Sky Bet Insufficient strength for the entire production capacity。Our point of view，sky bet games online pace can be faster，The strength can be a bit greater。We believe that the conditions for de -production capacity are now after the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1999，much less challenge，The difficulty is much smaller，Because the employment situation is very good now，Bank fiscal operation is much stronger than 1999，If you take out the determination at that time to come and get production capacity，It should be able to achieve major progress。"Li Daokui said。
The prerequisite for the bottom of the sky bet games online is that various reform measures are in place
In addition，Li Daokui thinks，There are many new highlights in China's sky bet games online 。
First，China's real economy has emerged as high head。The growth rate of the real economy last year，The non -financial part is 6.3%，From the perspective of the overall operation，I have improved in the second half of the year，sky bet games online momentum is 1 sky bet games online year、Living in February，The situation of the rise in the real economy is gradually recovering。An important factor in driving China's economic growth last year is finance，Last year, the financial industry accounted for about 9%of the entire economic weight，and the financial industry last year as much as 15.9%，Near 16%，sky bet games online is a huge pull force。It is estimated that the financial industry is due to the fluctuation of the stock market sky bet games online year，May slow，The transaction volume may have a certain atrophy，So the financial industry sky bet games online year should not expect it to maintain 16%of last year's growth，The financial industry may slow down from last year.，But the real economy is recovering。
2，The speed of investment and development of the real estate industry sky bet login sky bet games online year，It is expected to be June，See the bottom of the bottom。The growth rate of real estate investment development last year was zero -growth in December，No matter how the real estate investment development is in June sky bet games online year, the growth rate of real estate investment will return to positive growth，We expect that the year is about 5%。Real estate has been rebounded，Manufacturing may decline，Generally speaking, it is basically the same，or slightly rising。sky bet games online year's fixed asset investment is basically the same as last year，Even slightly improved。
third，Reform from the second child policy。In the second half of 2016，China will increase 2 million new baby babies，sky bet games online can also drive consumption，Because these babies are born in families that have been taken care of by generations，We predict that the second child policy can account for the growth of GDP0.2%of consumption。
Li Daokui finally said，China's economy has confidence、There is a way、There are highlights。If various major measures proposed by the state sky bet games online year，Including de -inventory and de -capacity can be in place，Various measures for new urbanization can also be in place，State -owned enterprise reform can have a landing policy，In the second half of 2016，The latest half of 2017，sky bet games online round of China's economic growth rate has declined, which may be built。The prerequisite is that various reform measures must be in place，Especially new urbanization and reform of state -owned enterprises。If the growth rate of China's economy in 2017 and 2018 is not only stabilized，and slightly recovery，Then the 13th Five -Year Plan has a very good start。By 2020's first century goal，It can be achieved。"There are many uncertain factors Sky Bet in 2016，Including exchange rate issues，Question of the stock market。Our basic point of view is，exchange rate issues have been reasonably managed by reasonable management，Management capital flow，Can be completely solved，Maintain basic stability in 2016，Declanquerism will not exceed 5%，Maintaining a package of currencies is basically stable。”